Tuesday, August 11, 2009

EPL 09/10 Season's Prediction

Good news football fans. The Premier League Season is about to begin. All the excitement, the mayhem and the madness is about to be unleashed. There are those that believes that this year is going to be the tightest title race since the inception of the Premier League. And then there are the hardcore supporters who predict their own team to win. There are the United fans who rightly I may say believe that its their destiny to win the EPL every year. And the confounded Chel$hits that are in a perennial state of dementia thinking that their band of cheats/ bullies will win the title. The Loserfools who haven't won the league in 20 years, but come August they always presume (or dream) they are going to win the title. And the poor Arseholes. You almost feel sorry for them. No trophies in four years and no indication that they might change that. But still they believe.

So come May, who is going to lift the Holy Grail. Will it be Gary Neville yet again. Or will one of Gerrard, Terry or Fabregas get their hands on the trophy this time (Naaaaahhhhh). Here is my prediction on the top four.

Chelsea - Most of the so called football pundits are predicting Chelsea to be the biggest title challenger to Manchester United this season. Well, I don't think so. Not with the squad they have got. An aging squad, lack of pace and over reliance on an unpredictable striker and deflected goals from Fat Frank don't bear the hallmark of champions. Additionally from their pre-season campaign, it's apparent that Ancelotti prefers the diamond formation in midfield. This is a throwback to the Moaninho era, where he had Lampard at the head of the diamond, Robben and Cole on the wings and Essien/ Makalele protecting the defense. The system worked for a couple of years but then the teams figured Chelsea out and they had to change their system to 4-3-3. So would it work this time around? The answer is a bit fat No. Let's have a look why.
Starting at the back, cech is still the keeper but anyone who has seen him perform for the last couple of years would have to say that he is not the same keeper who made Chelsea the meanest defense in the league. Fact of the matter is he has never been the same since his horror injury at Reading. His confidence has been shaken and certain chinks in his armour have surfaced. They have the second best central defence in the league (though I feel Terry is overrated and Carvalho holds the defence together). They have a pair of excellent attacking full backs, who like going forward at every opportunity they get. But with the 4-4-2 diamond, they will not get that kind of freedom. And if they do go forward, it will give the opposition defense a chance to go on the counter attack now that Chelsea wouldn't have two holding midfielders to cover for them. Moving over to the midfield, I see them playing Mikel/ Essien in front of the defense, Ballack/ Cole/ Malouda/ Essien in central midfield and Lampard at the top of the diamond. Essien is a master in the CDM position and is vital for Chelsea. He is the one who breaks opposition attacks and get the ball back for Chelsea to attack. Much of Chelsea's season will depend on whether he stays fit for the whole season or not. With the diamond formation, they will lose some of the width in the final third of the park and that places all the creative burden on Lampard. Lampard wouldn't be able to score more than 20 goals that he normally gets a season and Chelsea will rely on him to create chances for the top two. Coming to the top two. What a pair! Drogba is an enigma. He is brilliant one moment and immensely frustrating the other. To top it off, he dives, cheats, abuses and threatens referees and can at times be borderline psychotic. Anelka, on the other hand, is a perennial under-achiever who doesn't seem to care about his football and sometimes only looks mildly interested in the events on field. In my opinion, the strike pair are not reliable enough to carry the team.
Star Man: Michael Essien. Boy do they need him. He is what makes Chelsea tick. Without him, they are a bit exposed to opposition attacks. Without Essien they will leak goals and would have to score a hell of a lot of goals.
Prediction: Can't see them finishing in the top three. They might have a decent squad, but their first team is not good enough to beat top teams. I predict they would finish fourth this season unless they sign someone of high quality this month.

Liverpool - Last year was the closest the scousers came to the premier league title. They had a pretty good season by their standards. Truth be told, they came mighty close and left even seasoned United supporters sweating. But in the end, like always, they fell short. Having not seen the league trophy for 20 years,the Kop faithfuls are hungry (some would even say desperate) to win the title. Increasing the drama is the fact that that United are now level to Liverpool in terms of league titles (Yes Rafa, that's a FACT). Another win for United will see them overtake Liverpool and become not only the most successful team in EPL era but the most successful English team of all time. Will Rafa's men be able to stop them?
Last season, Torres and Gerrard were the Brains behind the Liverpool attack. Together they have formed a lethal partnership that has been missing for Liverpool ever since Rush retired. With Torres upfront and Gerrard playing behind him in the hole, these two combined last season with spectacular results. Torres, with his ability to dribble past defenders with pace along with his sublime finishing made the best of the defenders look ordinary. Add the lung bursting runs of Gerrard from midfield and you have got a fearsome attack. But there is more to Liverpool than these two (or atleast was). True they are the players who steal all the headlines, buts it's the two holding midfielders, that Liverpool employ, who do all the dirty work and make the team work. Yes I am talking about Mascherano and Alonso. Last season was a turning point in Mascherano's career. From being labelled the stupidest man in the world, he has raised his game to become one of the best holding midfielder on the planet. Alongside him, Alonso has grown into a world class midfielder. His passing is immaculate, his vision and reading of the game is top notch and he has a decent shot as well. He always seems to have ample time on the ball and is always available to take a pass.
Much of Liverpool's season hinged on whether they would keep hold of their star players. They have sold Alonso and brought Aquilani in as his replacement. Aquilani may be good, but he is not as good as Alonso. He would not be able to dominate the midfield in the same way that Alonso did. And without Alonso making the killer passes through midfield, Gerrard will have to drop deeper to get the ball. Basically, Liverpool's whole setup has been rocked. I don't see them playing the way they did last season without Alonso.
Star Man: Steven Gerrard. Mr Liverpool himself. He has been the heart and soul of the team for the last decade or so and they need hm now more than ever.
Prediction: Had Liverpool managed to keep last year's squad together, they would have been serious title contenders. But losing Alonso is a big blow. They also don't have the depth in their squad. If they lose either Gerrard or Torres to an injury, they are screwed. So I predict them to finish third.

Arsenal - Believe me when I say this, this is a make or break season for Arsenal and Arsene Wenger. The tension in the air and the pressure to deliver is higher than ever. With no trophies in the last 4 seasons, the last thing they won was the FA cup in 2005. Since then, many of their established stars have moved on in search of newer pastures (all of the invincibles have now left). Admittedly dome new stars have come in the team, but are they up to the task?
Arsene Wenger is an advocate of the beautiful game. Under him Arsenal has evolved into a fluid passing team with intricate movement, one touch passing and a plethora of creativity. He has refused to buy big and has instead placed his faith in young prodigious talent. But therein lies the one big flaw in his gameplan. Arsenal have lots of talented youngsters with immense talent and natural abilities. They are capable of producing moments of exquisite football that can make a purists burst into tears of joy. Their elegant movement, slide rule passing and stunning one touch passing moves are second to none (except probably Barcelona). All this works as long as the opposite teams let them play their football. But if a team decides to get in their faces, stick it to them and play on the counter attack, they are often found lacking. Why is that? Precisely the same reason why they are capable of playing one touch football. They have a glut of creative players. What they lack is experience and steel. Players like Viera, Henry, Pires were all experienced steely players who were all replaced by youngsters. That has sucked out all the experience from Arsenal's team and robbed them of a solid backbone. They don't have any player to break opposition attacks and start their own. More often than not, they have to rely on scoring more goals they let in to win the games. Another charge that has been laid on this Arsenal team is that they have a tendency to overcook things. Where simple passes or shots could work, they often try to come up with complicated passing moves, which may be aesthetically pleasing, but is not as effective as the direct approach.
Their have an extremely volatile goalkeeper, who can switch between a brilliant shot stopper and a klutzy clown in the matter of seconds. Their defense is extremely inexperienced (and short!) and apart from Gallas, Sagna and Clichy has no quality at all. The have bought Vermaelen from Ajax but have sold their most best central defender in the shape of Toure. Moving to the midfield, I think they have the best central midfielder in the world in Fabregas. His passing, movement creativity and the general reading of the game is out of this world. They've got Arshavin, Nasri and Rosicky who are all excellent attacking midfielders capable of linking the midfield to the forward line. In the shape of Wilshere and Ramsey they have an exciting bunch of young attacking midfielders hoping to burst on the scene. But do you think something missing? As I was saying earlier, they lack a holding midfielder who can protect their fragile defense. Denilson is not good enough to stop the likes of Rooney, Gerrard and Lampard. In attack, Van Persie and Eduardo are proven talent at the highest level and are both excellent finishers. Walcott is an upcoming talent and is held in high regards both in the Arsenal and England set-up. They have sold Adebayor, who they will not miss if Eduarso and Van Persie can stay fit for the season. Looking at the whole picture, Arsenal are one holding midfielder and one strong central defender away from being a world class team.
Star Man
: Cesc Fabregas. He has been the shining light in all these years of darkness for Arsenal. Once again Arsenal will rely on him to deliver the sucker punches and propel them to glory.
Prediction: Everyone has written Arsenal off for next season. Some have even questioned their top four status in the wake of the event taking place at Man Shitty. But I think Arsenal are going to surprise everyone. I am pretty sure Wenger will buy a couple of players before the transfer window closes. How those signings perform will make or break this season for Arsenal. I predict them to finish as runner-ups this season.

Manchester United - The reigning champions. The crown jewel in the British empire. The most successful team in English football. For the past few years, they have been and still are, the team to beat. They have won the Premier league for the last three year and will be out to create more history by becoming the team to win the league four times on a trot. And given their recent record, who can bet against them?
The summer has been a summer of change for united. Two of their famous fab-four are gone. Ronaldo finally got the move to Real Madrid that he has always wanted and Tevez has swapped the Red shirt of united for the blue part of Manchester. I don't think united will miss Tevez a lot. True he ran a lot, but you don't pay 25 million pounds for a guy who runs a lot. His five league goals in twenty nine starts can very easily be replaced. On the other hand, Ronaldo is an immense loss. You can't lose the best player in the world and say that it's no big deal. It is a big deal and had it been any other club, you would expect them to struggle. But united are no ordinary club. They have an the attitude of winners engrained in every particle of their being. They have lost great players in the past but always seem to find a way back. When the chips are down, expect a blazing, almost revolutionary revival from them. This never say die attitude in united teams of the past and the present is mainly down to two of the greatest managers in footballing history. Sir Matt Busby was a pioneer in giving young homegrown players a chance in the first team, engrain an adventerous and never say die attitude in them from a young age and unleash them on the world. And Sir Alex has taken it even further by installing a hunger to win in his player. And it's all down to SAF being the united manager that I believe United are going to be okay.
Looking at the squad, they have one of the best goalkeeper in the world, Van Der Saar who, like Vintage Wine, gets better with age. Foster has been ear marked to be the next United and England #1. They have what is probably the strongest defence in the world, not seen since the late 80's and early 90's Milan team. Neville and Brown are both experienced RB who can play in the center as well. Rafael is an attacking RB in the frame of Cafu who is expected to be the future RB of both his club and country. In Central defence, Vidic and Rio have formed the best CB partnership in the world. Vidic, being an aggressive defender, hard tackler, good in the air and a ferocious competitor acts as a perfect foil for Rio, who is a classy defender, comfortable on the ball and is an excellent distributor. Evra has established himself as one of the best LB in the world and he has an excellent understudy in Fabio. If the united team has a weak point, its central midfield. Opposed to Arsenal, they have some excellent holding midfielders who can break opposition attacks. What they are lacking is a creative attacking midfielder, who can link up the play between midfield and attack. But all is not lost. With Ronaldo gone, Nani, Valencia and Tosic will be given more chances to establish themselves in the united setup and to fill in the big boots vacated by Ronaldo. Carrick and Fletcher have really come into their own in the last couple of season and they can be expected to produce the goods as deep lying central midfielders this term as well. Anderson will be expected to start fulfilling the potential he showed in his first season with united. Maybe he is going to be the one who steps up as an attacking midfielder, a position in which he used to play at his previous club Porto. But the biggest boost to united will be in the shape of the return of Owen Hargreaves. He is one of the few box to box midfielder (in the mould of Keano) left on the planet and would be vital against big teams. There is no point in dwelling in the past, but it may not be wrong to say that had Hargreaves been fit last season, the Champions league final would have panned out a bit differently. And don't forget the evergreen Giggs and Scholes who may be in the twilight of their career but are still capable of producing moments of pure genius. Looking at the attack, they have lost 20-30 goals a season in Ronaldo. It will be upto the other to lift their game and compensate for this loss. Rooney will be played in a more central role this term and would be vital for United's hope this season. I think its the ideal time and opportunity for Rooney to live up to his full potential. Time for him to stop being the selfless team member and become the explosive and brilliant Rooney that exploded on the scene at Euro 2004. How well he links up with Dimitar Berbatov is going define the season for united. Berbatov had a mixed first season for united, showing glimpses of his atrocious talent, but not consistently enough. That may have been enough at Spurs, but now he's with United and needs t step his game up a notch. They have a couple of exciting young strikers in Macheda and Wellbeck who burst into the first team last year and are expected to improve upon their performances this term. And that brings us to the newest addition to the squad, Michael Owen. Signed on a free, Owen can become the shrewdest piece of transfer business that SAF has ever done. He is an excellent finisher and a proven goalscorer. If he can stay fit, he is bound to bang in 15 - 20 goals this season. With all these changes in the squad, expect United to play differently from last season, but don't write them off.
Star Man: Wayne Rooney.With Ronaldo gone, Rooney is going to become the main man for United. My opinion has always been that Rooney is the heartbeat of United. Even when Ronaldo was here, Rooney was the one who used to orchestrate all the attacks. Ronaldo took away all the headlines, but it was Rooney who used to make United tick. And now it's his time. Time for him to remind the world of his talents and become the shining light at Old Trafford.
Prediction: Only a fool would bet against United winning everything in sight. They have the best squad in the league, with a mixture of world class experienced players and gifted youngsters. But most importantly, they have a manager who knows how to win they league. I predict them to finish as Champions again.

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